Jared Jones is the Modern Pitcher Blueprint. Zack Littell's Lefty Location Changes
Jared Jones, Zack Littell, Keaton Winn, Bryce Elder
Pirates Jared Jones is crushing major league hitters. His fastball is different compared to last season, which is the main driver of this breakout. He averaged 96 mph with 16” vertical break from a 5.6’ release with 6.5’ extension in 2023. This was an above-average fastball. This season he’s 97 mph (averaged 98 yesterday) with 18” vertical break from a 5.5’ release with 7’ extension. FanGraphs Stuff+ of 146, plus-plus pitch. 🏴☠️ My theory: Get him extending down the mound more so he can raise his arm angle slightly to get more vertical break, but enough added extension will allow the net to be a lower release (the Spencer Strider, if you will). Makes me wonder how many teams chase this blueprint with other arms.
Prospect evaluation can be tough given that it’s hard to assume changes will happen. If we knew the fastball shape would jump this much, I think more people would’ve been on him. But then again, his stock only ticked up so much in Spring. If we want to nitpick going forward, his four-seam to righties in non-two-strike situations is getting touched up when it’s middle of the plate (not surprising). I’d be curious to see if he has the confidence to push his slider usage ahead of his fastball in those situations.
Rays Zack Littell is throwing more sinker this season. Usage has doubled to 16% versus lefties and tripled to 24% versus righties. Pretty interesting location change to left-handed hitters. His sinker is now inside (front door) as opposed to down-away. His slider is now an up-in pitch as opposed to a down-in pitch. Driveline Stuff+ has the sinker and slider at 100 (Average) with the splitter at 133 (plus-plus). ☀️
I wonder whether the elevation of the slider and sinker—subtly there against righties as well—was part of the plan to increase his splitter usage? Keep hitters’ sights up on everything and then drop splitters low. Lefty xSLG is down 100 points compared to last year, splitter has been unhittable, so you could argue it’s working. Maps below.
Giants Keaton Winn is zoning his splitter >55% when he’s behind in count to either handedness of hitter. Splitters are generally used as out-of-zone chase pitches for deeper count situations. Their average zone rate is 35%, the lowest of any pitch in baseball. Winn is using his split like a sinker in the zone (the Alex Cobb approach), where it’s averaging a 1.8° launch angle (4.5° is average) and just a 20% whiff rate (37% is average). I think there could be some added uniqueness to the look of this pitch given Winn’s release height is higher than average, and yet, his splitter is generating more drop than average at 89 mph. So even if it’s middle of the plate, it’s staying under barrels due to more drop than normal. Winn’s splitter grip is below. ✌️
Braves Bryce Elder’s release height is up 2.5” compared to last season. His sinker and changeup both added 3” of vertical break, which is natural given he’s likely behind the ball more. Driveline Stuff+ of 108 on the sinker (which is pretty surprising) while FanGraphs Stuff+ has it as a 45 (yes, 45) on it. Massive gap in grading here. Tough to eval because his 2023 sinker had outlier drop from his well-above-average release height. The higher release and resulting gain in vertical on the sinker makes it less of an outlier. I don’t mind this change if it’s accompanied by velocity (think Cristopher Sanchez), but in Elder’s case it’s not. Driveline must still really like the steep approach from a high release. FanGraphs may just hate the shape. 🤷♂️
The higher could be a byproduct of Elder doing something in his mechanics that suggests more efficiency (unlikely given lack of velo jump), better long-term health, or the potential for better command. I could buy one of these angles, but I’m terrified by how middle he throws his four-seam and sinker.