Is Ryan Pepiot Finally Good? Bryce Miller's Sinker is Helping his Four-Seam
Ryan Pepiot, Bryce Miller, Hunter Greene
Dodgers Ryan Pepiot seems to have escaped him home run problems from last year. Nothing really different in location or approach. Still 50%+ fastball with 30%+ changeups and a peripheral slider for righties. His release height is up 2-3” across the board. Combine that release increase with ~3” added drop to his changeup—usually a higher release creates less of an ability to create drop—and it’s clear why he’s getting 44% chase with above-average contact quality. Driveline Baseball’s Stuff+ is 146, a plus changeup. Appears he’s cutting his fastball slightly more with the higher release, vertical break down ~1”, less arm-side movement, but tough to be worried when results are better. Slider has ticked up, he’s maintained 6-7” sweep but added 2 mph and 3” vertical break (lift). Standard to see lift on a slider increase with a velocity uptick. Slider is also near plus pitch per Driveline, 131 Stuff+.
His problem has always been control, and the Dodgers appear to be figuring it out. Perhaps the release increase is an indication they want him to do something different mechanically. I think you’d ideally want the fastball usage below 50%, but given he’s not really ever been in zone with his changeup or slider, I’m not sure it’s possible to do that and keep his walk rate lower than expectations. Hard to doubt the Dodgers. 📈
Mariners Bryce Miller has changed his approach slightly in August. More mix/usage adjustments than shape changes. He’s cut his four-seam usage to righties 20 percentage points and brought up his sinker usage up from 1% to 28%. This appears to have improved the contact quality on his four-seam, from a .528 xwOBA on contact in June/July to .258 in August. Four-seam works up-away to righties, so I wonder if the sinker inside has caused some issues for righties covering the four-seam up-away. FanGraphs Stuff+ on the four-seam is better than the sinker, good example of Stuff+ not capturing something with the four-seam.
Lefties are still giving him trouble. He’s brought down four-seam usage there (10 percentage points) in favor of more secondaries. He ditched his curveball in August, throwing his sweeper more (taboo, and it doesn’t appear to be working). His slider in theory should be good to lefties, it’s generating above-average swing-miss but contact quality has been below average despite fine results, maybe some regression coming there. Overall results have been solid, unsure what the fix to lefties is, the mix is there, appears to be an execution thing like Bryan Woo. 🔱
Reds Hunter Greene with some four-seam regression yesterday despite strong results. I still think he’s tinkering mechanically post IL stint. He’s had 2 of the 4 lowest release heights of his career in his last two starts. Yesterday his extension was the highest of his career, ~2” over his 2023 average. Stuff+ on his four-seam dropped slightly due to a slight velo decrease and vertical break (carry) decrease of ~1.5”. Driveline Baseball ticked it down from 150 to 121 Stuff+, FanGraphs with less of a decrease from 125 to 121 Stuff+. The key to point out here, however, is that he had above-average zone rates on both his four-seam and slider compared to average zone rates this season. So perhaps there’s some trade-off here? I’d just worry about being in zone too much versus a better offense, which has killed him in the past. 🔥