Is Brayan Bello Fixable? Hunter Brown's Resurgence
Brayan Bello, Hunter Brown
Red Sox Brayan Bello has had a disappointing season. His last 6 starts have been rough, posting a 6.89 ERA, 4.99 FIP. Over those starts, his changeup to righties has dropped to 15% from 25% earlier in the season. His swing-miss has bottomed out from 27% to 15%, but he's managed to push his ground-ball rate up to 67% and limit damage. This success connects mostly to some location changes. His sinker is now more deliberately in two spots of the zone (see heatmaps below). His slider is also focused more away from righties after living in zone a lot earlier in the season. 🧦
The majority of his issues have come against left-handed hitters. His xSLG has jumped from .339 to .583 in these past 6 starts. All 3 pitches are getting crushed. There’s minimal usage change here, some more sliders. The key from a location standpoint seems to be more slider in zone to lefties. It appears he’s trying to push towards more down-in locations and his misses are getting drubbed. I’ll admit, I’m not sure what to do with Bello. It’s 3 pitches that he throws to either handedness. He’s basically the exact same pitcher he was last season from a variety of metrics despite the improved slider. I think he might just be a league-average pitcher. I often find it difficult to play amateur pitch design with lower-slot arms. The only sensible tweaks to make are with his breaking ball (move to 2 breakers?), which feels like something we’ll be saying for the rest of his career.
Astros Hunter Brown’s last 5 starts have been a breath of fresh air—1.74 ERA with a 3.11 FIP. I’ve talked about this in numerous pieces of content (video + substack post), but his tweaks primarily came against right-handed hitters. He started leaning on a two-seamer as his primary fastball and throwing his old, harder cutter more. I think working with a pair of fastballs at the top of the zone, one of which is now running inside, was the game-changer needed to help the cutter away. I’m always a fan of pitchers with terrible ERAs that make substantive tweaks. Props to Brown. ⭐️