Imanaga's Debut. Ronel Blanco's No-No. MacKenzie Gore's Slider Velo
Ronel Blanco, MacKenzie Gore, Shota Imanaga, Dean Kremer, Cristopher Sanchez, Michael Wacha
Cubs Shota Imanaga dominated with his splitter. 12 whiffs on 15 swings. 83 mph, 6.5” vertical break with 10” arm-side movement. His fastball had 18.5” vertical break, 2” lower than what he flashed in the WBC, but still ~4” more than average for his 5.5’ release (24th percentile). Both are bound to be better-than-average pitches per Stuff+. 📈
It feels notable that Imanaga’s best two outings have come against bottom 10 teams in the league versus four-seam fastballs last season: the Athletics and Rockies. His next starts will come against two of the Dodgers, Mariners, and Padres—3 of the top 7 teams versus four-seam fastballs last season.
Nationals MacKenzie Gore’s slider was up 2.5 mph and added 2” vertical break. His fastball also added 2 mph and 1” vertical break. If he holds the 18” four-seam vertical break he averaged, it would be 2” more than average for his 5.9’ release (56th percentile). FanGraphs Stuff+ of 101 on the slider, 112 on fastball last season, both likely to increase. 🏛️
I’m always cautious with velocity gainers early in the season. We’ve seen some guys velo and vertical break fall back to prior season averages in subsequent starts. Aka, we’re not at a stabilization point for four-seam shape or velo yet (need 2-3 starts). If Gore holds these improvements, it’s intriguing. I’m particularly interested in the slider velocity jump—6 whiffs on 10 swings.
Orioles Dean Kremer has a new cutter and splitter. The cutter traded 2.5 mph and 5” vertical break (dropping more) for 4” sweep. This is more slider now. I wonder if it’s eventually reclassified. FanGraphs Stuff+ of 104 on 2023 cutter, should increase. New splitter is down to 800 rpm, 3” less vertical break and 5” less arm-side movement than his old changeup. Old changeup: 86 FanGraphs Stuff+, should increase. 🦀
The Orioles made a similar tweak with Grayson Rodriguez’s slider, putting it in this area between a gyro slider and a sweeper above 85 mph. I wonder if it’s easier to command without sacrificing too much stuff.
Astros Ronel Blanco threw a no-hitter. He threw 36 changeups, a career high. The pitch had 4” less vertical break (dropping more) than last season. His extension was also up 4” while his release height rose 1-2”. Usually, extension increases cause release height to decrease. Achieving more changeup drop from a higher release is intriguing. Changeup Stuff+ should increase above 94 from last season. 🥇
Blanco’s changeup usage peaked last season at 17% in July before falling back to 9% in August.
Phillies Cristopher Sanchez’s velocity was up 2 mph on both his sinker and changeup and he held it through the outing. 94.5 and 84.5 mph respectively. His release height was also up 5” compared to last season (that’s a lot). Sinker had 3” more vertical break, his changeup vertical break stayed the same. FanGraphs Stuff+ of 71 on the sinker, 75 on the changeup, both likely to increase but will likely have underwhelming grades. 🔥
Release height and vertical break often rise together. So it’s unsurprising that Sanchez’s sinker isn’t dropping as much. I think the velocity matters more than making him slightly less of an outlier release pitcher. His changeup maintaining the same vertical break year over year—bucking the release up, vertical break up trend—might be the key to making it work.
Royals Michael Wacha has massive variance in his changeup. I think he’s throwing two different orientations. One is likely four-seam oriented: 13” vertical break, 9” arm-side. The other gets down to 3” vertical break with 16” arm-side. Very uncommon to get below 4” vertical break from a >6.7’ release (98th percentile). 🖖
Most pitchers with that high of a release can't get to the inside of a ball at release to create the necessary drop. That’s why splitters are common for that slot. Bryce Elder is the only pitcher from 2023 with >6.4’ release and a changeup averaging below 4” vertical break. Below is a pic of Wacha’s short-form movement plot of his changeup. Rarely do you see a swath covering over 15” vertical break on one pitch. Tight clusters of movement more common.