Hunter Greene's Shape-Shifting Fastball. The Side Effects of Logan Gilbert's New Cutter
Hunter Greene, Logan Gilbert, Dylan Cease, Bobby Miller
New YouTube Video: The Fastball is Dying. The Red Sox are Killing it
Reds Hunter Greene’s four-seam shape improved yesterday. His release height has climbed in his first 3 outings, from 6.1’ to 6.2’ to 6.3’ yesterday. This has helped improve his fastball shape, but his velo was down marginally from Opening Day. Four-seam had 18.8” vertical break at 98 mph yesterday, the second-highest single-game vertical break number he’s posted in his career, and the highest since April 2022. His four-seam also moved to the outer third versus lefties, he pounded it inside during his past 2 outings. 🔥
His new curveball had an odd shape yesterday too, more like a sweeper. 81 mph with 2.5” vertical break and 11” sweep, lines up to an average pitch. He threw 3 in his first outing and 6 yesterday. 5 of the 6 were thrown 0-0. His curveball in spring had more drop (around -7” vertical), which he flashed on 1 of the 6 thrown. Feels like some unintentional feel loss on the pitch to me. Probably wants shape with more depth.
Mariners Logan Gilbert has dropped his fastball usage from 42% to 28% this season. Usage has been replaced by his new cutter, which FanGraphs has as the best cutter in baseball (168 Stuff+) because it’s harder than the average cutter with about 3” more sweep and comparable drop. 🔱
An interesting byproduct of adding the cutter is that he’s begun to lower his fastball location to lefties, more away/down-away than up, while the cutter sits on the inner third. To righties, he’s doing the inverse, elevating his four-seam more, with the cutter sitting more middle away. Stuff+ doesn’t love his four-seam because the only defining characteristic is plus-plus extension, so leaning toward the cutter is a sharp move.
Padres Dylan Cease has a new sweeper. It’s essentially a second curveball—85 mph with -10” vertical break and 12” sweep, 10” less vertical break (more drop) than the average sweeper. He threw 3 yesterday, all in 2-strike counts, all to righties, all out of zone, no swings. Clearly a deep-count whiff pitch for a specific handedness to him. Driveline Stuff+ of 118, plus pitch, but needs to land it. 🧹
Dodgers Bobby Miller has some slider troubles. I talked in a prior post about how the pitch is harder than last season with the same amount of sweep, grade went up (Driveline Stuff+ of 118, plus pitch), but he’s struggling to generate swing-miss with it versus righties. Tiny sample whiff rate is cut in half. Location is more up with the pitch than away, which could be a byproduct of throwing it harder. Tough balance to strike. I think the new shape is better, but location hasn’t been optimal. 🤷♂️