Where Did Tanner Bibee's Whiffs Go? Cade Horton's MLB Debut
Tanner Bibee, Cade Horton, Jack Kochanowicz
Guardians Tanner Bibee has a 1.89 ERA / 3.17 FIP over his last 3 outings compared to a 5.19 ERA / 7.36 FIP in his first 5 of the season. The changes driving these tweaks seem to be mostly usage-based. Versus lefties, he’s backed off his changeup and four-seamer, both falling around 10 percentage points in these last 3 outings. His shorter slider (tagged as a cutter) and sinker have gained usage in their place, the former almost acting as a primary pitch. This has helped his barrel issues, but he hasn’t recovered any swing-miss from last season (he needs his changeup for that). 🤷♂️
Versus righties, we’re seeing a similar theme. Bibee has backed off his four-seamer, adding back a bunch of sinker usage. His four-seam is down from 29% to 11% while his sinker has soared from 21% to 34% in his last 3 outings. The sinker is mostly a middle-down/away pitch for him, not working it inside like most right-right sinkers. His short slider usage is also up against righties, similar emphasis on the offering like he’s doing versus lefties.
Bibee has pushed into contact neutralizing mode, and the swing-miss is nowhere to be found. I think it’ll work for the time being—he had to do something to shake the 13% barrel rate—but the upside will be limited without strikeouts. Is his changeup catching too much zone relative to last year? His loss of righty whiffs is more mystifying. The swing rate against him and batter chase are both way down, leading me to the old assumption of tipping, despite my inability to usually catch such pitch-to-pitch discrepancies.
Cubs Cade Horton made his major league debut in Queens, following an opener (4 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 5 K). It’s a 5-pitch mix—four-seam, sweeper, short downer curveball, sinker, and changeup. He only threw one changeup and one sinker alongside 4 curveballs, focusing heavily on his four-seam/sweeper combo. The fastball is an extreme cut shape, around 70% spin efficiency, resulting in average glove-side movement (think Tyler Glasnow, Dylan Cease). He sat 95.3 in this outing with 15” vertical break with .5” glove side. Models should have it as an average four-seamer. His sweeper is the key pitch here. It averaged 83 mph with 1” vertical break with 11-12” glove-side movement last night. It ran a 20%+ swinging-strike rate versus lefties and righties at Triple-A this season. 🎉
I’m interested to see how his lefty approach develops. He’s going to crush righties, no reservations there. His four-seam acted as more of a pitch-to-contact offering at Triple-A with a measly 6% swinging-strike rate. The intent is to sit away from lefties with the pitch, and when it misses middle, the shape keeps it off-barrel. He’s never had a problem getting it in the zone, the question is whether the pitch is as effective against major league lefties. His curveball-sweeper combo is good enough to put lefties away when he has count leverage, but it’s a matter of getting there first. He threw a great changeup to Juan Soto as well, a pitch I think he should use more in deep-count spots. His next start lines up at home versus the White Sox—should be a cake walk.
Angels Jack Kochanowicz is getting crushed by left-handed hitters. He has a 7.09 FIP this season versus lefties with a 14% barrel rate and a below-average 10% swinging-strike rate. He threw 73% sinkers last year. The Angels have pushed that usage down to 47% this season and emphasized his four-seam and slider. I think it’s possible to correct the lefty issues. His four-seam is over the plate way too much. They’re mostly giving him hard away targets, either up or down, and he’s pulling a lot of those misses back into the zone. I’d prefer it as a pure elevation pitch and jack back up the sinker usage. I don’t know the utility of trying to throw two fastballs down away to lefties. I’d also trade slider for changeup usage. Given I don’t have much faith in him dotting the slider, present results on both offerings suggest the changeup’s in-zone success will be better on misses and should generate more chase off the plate. 🤔
Kochanowicz’s advantage is that he has an incredibly steep sinker approach into the zone (think Clay Holmes, Bryce Elder, etc). It’s the 5th steepest per vertical approach angle (VAA) in MLB this season, mostly due to his height (6’7”), slot, and location of the pitch. This allows him to mostly keep righties at bay without issue on a simplistic approach. The lefty problem is what a lot of these sinker-first guys run into. Holmes had a major overhaul this offseason and has been good enough versus lefties to turn lineups over and succeed. He’s the template to follow—sinkers and changeups with 2 short slider variants and a sweeper for whiffs. Kochanowicz desperately needs some kind of swing-miss with his preposterously low 12% strikeout rate. I have no issue with the sinker to lefites, it’s stitching together the peripheral pieces that need work.