MiLB Pitching Standouts (August)
Matt "Tugboat" Wilkinson, Jarlin Susana, Travis Sykora, Grant Taylor
Listed below are the Stuff+ metrics for each individual’s pitches. See my top 40 pitching prospects for more information about how the numbers scale to other stuff models. For quick reference, 12 is one standard deviation. So a 112 pitch is better than 85% of that pitch type in MLB in terms of raw quality.
Matt Wilkinson, LHP, Cleveland Guardians
Total Stuff+: 87 | Four-seam: 86 | Sweeper: 88 | Changeup: 92
Wilkinson is a mystery. He has a 38% strikeout rate with just an 8% walk rate at Class A and High-A this season. His WHIP is below 1.00. His FIP is minuscule. Yet there’s nothing about his data that suggests he should have these results aside from the hand he throws with.
Whenever I see results that don’t line up with underlying stuff, the majority of the time it’s because the pitcher is left-handed. Perhaps it’s just the mental map hitters have created throughout their lives being skewed towards right-handed hitters. Left-handers with just slightly odd traits seem to get away with more than most righties. For Wilkinson, that oddity comes from a combination of his extension (6.5’) and his release height (5.2’). The extension is right around average, but the release is over half a foot lower than average. He’s a very linear pitcher, comping more from a delivery traits standpoint to a Shota Imanaga than Chris Sale or DJ Herz. The “visual” he creates must be frustrating because the actual shape traits aren’t good relative to their velocity. The fastball sits below 90 mph with 15” vertical break and 14” arm-side movement. It’s a two-plane pitch that will lose some total movement when he gets to Triple-A, making the grade even worse. His spin isn’t particularly efficient and his spin rates are low (2,100 rpm). There’s not much to like here outside of the fact that his results are insane. The Guardians are good at developing velocity. I wonder if they’re not pushing that side of things because the results have been good?