Joey Cantillo's Vulcan Changeup. Edward Cabrera's Resurgence
Edward Cabrera, Joey Cantillo, Michael Wacha
Guardians Joey Cantillo has rounded into form over his last 2 outings (12 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, BB, 16 K) after struggling over his first 4 MLB starts. There isn’t much difference in these last two starts from a shapes or locations standpoint. He’s backed off his curveball to righties (20% to 10%). He throws one of the few four-seam fastballs at 92 mph that FanGraphs Stuff+ has as a 100 (average pitch). I think this is almost entirely based on extension. Cantillo’s 7.5’ is inside the 99th percentile in MLB. It’s 1 foot greater than his standing height. The shape is more average with 16.5” vertical break from a 5.9’ release height. FanGraphs Stuff+ slightly undersells who he is because his primary non-fastball is a changeup (which it gives an 86 Stuff+). Despite that, the pitch has generated a 49% swing-miss (31% is average). He uses a vulcan changeup grip (see below). The pitch separates by about 14 mph from his fastball and is just 77 mph. 🖖
I covered Cantillo back in 2018 when he was a prospect with the San Diego Padres (link). He was one of my first interactions as a reporter that developed into somebody I’ve always gone back to for pitching insights. He’s a great dude. Understandably, I am hyped to see him have some success. I wonder what his upside is, given I’m not entirely sure if he’ll get to a plus slider shape, but he may not need it. The Guardians seem to have a thing for big-extension lefties (I’m looking at you, Matt “Tugboat” Wilkinson).
Marlins Edward Cabrera has made some dramatic usage changes. He posted a 5.68 FIP from July through mid-August. That’s improved to a 3.5 FIP in his last 5 outings, his best stretch of the season. Versus lefties, he inverted his primary pitch. His four-seam increased from 27% to 43% while his changeup decreased from 42% to 26%. His swinging-strike rate is the same, but he’s shaved off 70 points of xwOBA. The biggest change comes against right-handed hitters. Cabrera’s slider usage increased from 6% to 27% as he pushed his curveball usage below 10%. He’s also being very aggressive with the pitch in the zone, which is a byproduct of using it more in early count situations (see heatmap below). He’s cut 10 percentage points of usage on his changeup, and he’s throwing more four-seam. Also like lefties, his swinging-strike rate hasn’t changed much, but his contact quality has improved. 🐠
The overall theme here is a) more four-seam and b) less changeup. The byproduct of that to righties has been more of his slider. FanGraphs Stuff+ has his slider as his best pitch (115), so it approves of the flip. It doesn’t like the four-seam, however. That leads us to the best path forward, which is probably to lean on the sinker more vs righties (FanGraphs Stuff+ has a 111 on the pitch). I continue to love Cabrera despite his faults. And I’m always a fan of big usage flips when a pitcher is struggling.
Royals Michael Wacha has cut his 3.99 FIP from May-July to 2.99 since the beginning of August. Much of this improvement has come against right-handed hitters. He’s pushed his swinging-strike rate from 10% to 15% by backing off his cutter + slider. Instead, he’s leaning on his two fastballs and changeup more. He’s started to diversify his four-seam location to right-handed hitters as well. His heatmap has gone from consistently away in the strike zone to pretty scattered (see below). It feels like this could be randomness on an outing-to-outing basis. But moving off the outer-third makes me wonder whether there’s some interest in diversifying. His four-seam’s swinging-strike rate has nearly doubled, from 7% to 13%, and his changeup continually chews up hitters. 👑
The Royals have the 4th-best team FIP this season. It’s the first time they’ll finish in the top half of the league in FIP since 2015. Wacha’s first season below 4 FIP since 2017 is a big reason why. They’re leaning on his changeup hard and it’s working.
