Landen Roupp Breakout Season? Matthew Liberatore's Subtle Adjustment
Landen Roupp, Brandon Young, Matthew Liberatore
Giants Landen Roup has had a great start to his season. He’s running a ~22% K-BB through 4 starts (top ~20 in MLB) and still has a BABIP that will come back down to league average (currently .358). He ditched his slider to righties this season and is instead throwing 10% changeup. He started incorporating a cutter ~14% to lefites, mostly up and inside. While the lefty mix has become more of a 4-pitch approach with the addition of that cutter, the base of his mix to both handedness is a sinker at 93 mph with a bunch of arm-side movement and his big, 77-mph curveball with 19” glove-side. ➿
Despite the big shapes, Roupp has command. FanGraphs Location+ has him at a 110 with plus locations on each of his sinker, cutter, and curveball. I’m most intrigued by his lefty approach (shown below). It’s sinkers that appear front-hipped with central targets because his arm-side is so big, curveballs that loop in backdoor, changeups down and cutters up-in off his sinker. His swing-miss and chase are both up considerably this season compared to last year. Despite the soft Stuff+ grade, the cutter might be helping to stitch together his approach. He’s a name I was unaware of before this season, yet he has a long track record of strikeouts and limited barrels. Sub-4 ERA here sounds correct from a projections standpoint, probably a top 70ish SP rest of season.
Orioles Brandon Young made his MLB debut (4 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 3 K). He’s a big dude (6’6”) with average extension for his height and just a touch above average release point (6’). His fastball shape looks good, getting 18” vertical break at 94 mph, about ~1.5” more than average. His split-change is wacky (grip, release below). It’s hard relative to his fastball with good separation for a pitcher with his vertical slot. It’s also in the zone a ton. Between the minors and his debut, he zoned the pitch 66% of the time and still got 35% swing-miss. 33% is average for a changeup that’s only in zone about 40-45%. It would be the second-highest zone rate on a changeup in MLB this season, if he qualified (Tanner Bibee is first). 🖖
Young is throwing all four of his pitches >10% to lefties and righties (4S, SL, CH, CU). This is most notable to righties, where he’s throwing ~25% slider and ~25% changeup. The profile is a vertical fastball with this wacky in-zone changeup. It’s pretty weird, and the mix is diversified, Bailey Ober-y in a way.
Cardinals Matthew Liberatore has the third-lowest walk rate in MLB at 2%. He doubled his changeup usage to 15% this year, pulling back on his sinker in the process. This might be a crude way to illustrate a shift in location, but the average horizontal location of his fastball trio—four-seam, sinker, and cutter—have all moved more inside to right-handed hitters this year. His four-seam by 5”, sinker by 4” and cutter by 4”. The net result appears to be a lower swinging-strike rate, down from 12% last year to 9%, but his small-sample contact quality (xwOBAcon) is 50 points lower versus righties. Versus lefties, his change was simple — throw more sliders. His usage is up from 36% to 50% year-over-year, and his swinging-strike rate has ballooned to 20% (<100 pitches thrown to lefites). 📈
Liberatore’s main release feature is his horizontal release point. He’s further toward the 3B side of the rubber than 94% of left-handed pitchers. Combine that with his high arm angle and release point, and we’re looking at one of the odder vertical lefty looks in MLB. I don’t know how sticky the crazy-low walk rate is given his zone and strike rates look similar to last year, but I do think the adjustment to be more inside with his fastballs to righties will help dampen his contact allowed, which could be all he needs to beat his ~4.30 ERA projection.