Garrett Whitlock's Huge Extension Drop. Erik Fedde's New Sweeper. Emerson Hancock's Velocity
Garrett Whitlock, Erik Fedde, Emerson Hancock
My top 40 pitching prospects post will be dropping this week or early next week. I’m putting the finishing touches on it now. It’s for premium subs only($5/mth or $30/year). It’ll have full reports on 40 MiLB arms and Stuff+ scores for each pitch type based on non-public minor league data.
Red Sox Garrett Whitlock made some mechanical changes. There’s a massive extension drop here year over year for Whitlock and a lowering of his release height. He went from extending 7.5’ on his sinker last season (99th percentile) to just 6.3’ extension this season (42nd percentile). His release height is down 5” as well (also a lot). If he kept the same arm angle with the lower extension, his release height would rise. Because we see the opposite, I guess that there was some deliberate attempt to lower his arm slot, which could be a byproduct of the lowered extension?
Whitlock is flashing a new cutter too, which is just 86 mph with 0” glove-side movement. I expect models not to like this pitch, wanting more velo or glove-side movement. He made a changeup tweak too. He’s averaging 3-4” less induced vertical break compared to last season at a slightly higher velocity (the pitch is dropping more). The overall package here is a bit perplexing to me. Striking to see a massive extension drop, but I like the changeup and sinker shape changes. Need to know more on whether there’s a deliberate mechanics tweak here. 🤷♂️
Mariners Emerson Hancock had a velo uptick. Last year both of his fastballs averaged about 92.5 mph. In his two spring starts, his sinker is averaging 95 mph while his four-seam is averaging 95.5 mph (just under 50 total fastballs). His release height is also up 4” on his fastballs moving it from the 13th percentile to the 39th percentile, suggesting some mechanical tweaks occurred to get the velocity. As a result of this, both his four-seam and sinker have added 2-3” induced vertical break. His four-seam fastball also lost 5” arm-side movement or run, making it more of a true four-seam and differentiated more from his sinker. FanGraphs Stuff+ had his four-seam as an 89 last year and his sinker as a 68. I’d expect those both to be around 100 now if he holds velocity. 🔱
White Sox Erik Fedde made some as-advertised changes. The sweeper is the main thing that stands out to me compared to 2022. It used to be 78 mph with -2” vertical break and 14” sweep. It’s now 84 mph with 5” vertical break and 11” sweep. It’s harder, sweeping less, with more lift. Stuff+ models should like this shape more. Comps to Brandon Pfaadt’s sweeper well, which FanGraphs Stuff+ gave a 118. It’s pushing on “hand of god” sweeper territory, which comes when the pitch has an inordinate amount of lift.
Fedde’s velocity is up about 1.5 mph on his sinker in a small sample, he’s averaging 94 mph this spring. Although we were told he flipped to Logan Webb’s split-change, I don’t see much of a difference in shape from the 2022 version of the pitch. It’s just 2 mph harder, which aligns with the fastball velocity uptick. I think this profile is more average (as opposed to the bad he was in 2022) and it could play up with command. I don’t think these changes make him an impact starter. But for $7.5m, Chicago could have done worse. 👍
Following up on Whitlock here -- sounds like the Red Sox internally don't have this large of a drop in Garrett Whitlock's extension, but the shape changes to the sinker and changeup are legitimate. Could have just been some spring data issues regarding the extension drop. Worth monitoring into the season!