Freddy Peralta's Vertical Break. Bobby Miller's Slider. Aaron Civale's Sweep
Freddy Peralta, Bobby Miller, Aaron Civale, Zack Wheeler, Spencer Strider, Cristian Javier, Cal Quantrill
Looks like Stuff+ outputs are delayed today due to issues with Statcast. I’ll update this post on my substack site when I see the outputs come through.
Brewers Freddy Peralta had a wacky movement day. His fastball averaged a 20” vertical break from a 5.3’ release height in the first 2 innings, +5” carry compared to 2023. That’s a massive increase. In innings 4, 5, 6 his fastball averaged just 17” vertical break from a similar release. Either way, Stuff+ should be up, but worth noting the fall-off. 🍻
Could this be an example of wind affecting pitch shape? I can’t really think of another reason why his ball would be carrying that much more without a substantial change in release height, which didn’t happen. His fastball shape is something to monitor moving forward, as he may have actually added a small amount of carry from a higher release, but not 5”+.
Dodgers Bobby Miller’s slider is different. 3 mph harder with 7” more vertical break (dropping less) and 2” more sweep compared to Aug/Sep 2023. The shape yesterday aligns with what he threw in June-July last year with 3” more sweep. Should be a ++ pitch via Stuff+. I wonder if velo trends down, drop increases as the season progresses. 👍
More velocity often coincides with less drop, but his ability to increase sweep from his June/July 2023 slider shape while adding velocity is the key to the pitch improving in grade in this start specifically. Maybe the Dodgers played with orientation to keep sweep of it alive at this harder velo? He’s behind this harder slider at release a lot more than the one he threw late last year. The slider’s direction of spin out of hand increases from ~9:00 to ~11:15 on a clock face when he’s throwing it >91 mph, acting more like a cutter at release.
Rays Aaron Civale added sweep to both his breaking balls. +7” sweep on his sweeper, +4” sweep on his curveball (when compared to Sept 2023). Velo down on both pitches 2.5 mph, which allows for more spin-induced movement. Stuff+ will surely increase on both pitches. 💫
Phillies Zack Wheeler’s splitter is back. 86 mph, 4” vertical break 17” arm-side run. Threw 9 of 10 to lefties, 7 of 10 in 2-strike counts. Tough to compare to his old splitter because his release was 5” higher back in 2019. 🖖
Braves Spencer Strider has a new curveball. 80.5 mph with -4.5” vertical and 8” sweep. It won’t grade above average due to a lack of total movement for that velocity. Threw 8 of 10 in 2-strike counts. ↩️
For what it’s worth, the shape he flashed yesterday is shorter than the shape data I have from his spring training outings, where he had >12” sweep on it and more drop. The pitch was slightly slower and much sweepier. Now it’s harder and more of a slow slider than a true curve. Curious to see if the shape evolves over time or if command/execution is more important.
Astros Cristian Javier leaned on his changeup. Shape looks identical to last season, but his release height was up 4” compared to Aug/Sep of last season and the pitch’s velocity was down 2 mph. He also averaged the highest vertical break on his four-seam (21.8”) of his career. All positives. 🔥
I expect an increase in Stuff+ on both his fastball (obviously) and changeup here. More velo and drop separation between his fastball and changeup are keys to good changeup grades. But it is worth noting all his called and swinging strikes on the changeup came in the first inning. It could have just been a surprise to the Yankees that he used the pitch a ton before they adjusted.
Rockies Cal Quantrill used his splitter 35% yesterday. This is a continuation of aggressive split usage from September last season, where he used the pitch 26%. Not a bad strategy when he pitches in Coors. 🏔️
good work lance as always