Freddy Peralta's Slider Adjustment. Framber Valdez's Cutter Drop
Freddy Peralta, Framber Valdez, Johan Oviedo
Brewers Freddy Peralta has progressively shortened up his slider this season. The easiest way to isolate this is by looking at velocity and sweep on the pitch over time. In April & May he was 82 mph with 11” sweep, FanGraphs Stuff+ of 124. June he was up to 83 mph with 7” sweep, FanGraphs Stuff+ of 108. In his last 2 starts, the pitch is up to 84 mph with just 4” sweep, it’s lost about 4” lift as well. FanGraphs Stuff+ of 107. This is no longer a true sweeper to me, it appears he has turned the pitch into a baby sweeper, gyro slider hybrid. The margin between his curveball and slider appears smaller as a result, as the two pitches have contracted. Left-handed hitters seem to be getting more drop, right-handed hitters more lift.
Slider results have progressively improved as he’s shortened up the pitch. Whiff is up to 61% in his last 2 starts, 47% in April & May. xwOBA on contact down from .489 to .221. It’s odd to see the sweeper shortened for Freddy, but results have been great despite Stuff+’s skepticism. 🍻
Astros **Framber Valdez’s “**cutter” had a ton of drop yesterday. The pitch averaged 85 mph with -4” vertical break and 3” sweep in his prior 4 starts. Pitch was down to 82 mph with -9” vertical break with 5” sweep yesterday. FanGraphs Stuff+ with basically no adjustment, Driveline Baseball’s Stuff+ down from 138 to 110. He generated a ton of swing-miss on it yesterday, usually around 47% for him, jumped above 60%. This feels like an outlier shape for him, given it’s the most drop and sweep (5” where he’s usually around 3”) his cutter has had all season. I would expect this to toggle back to the less-drop version next start. This pitch is also just not a cutter, it moves much more like a slider, could argue yesterday it acted like a second curveball. I understand pitch classification but sometimes it can be deceptive.
His contact quality has hit a point of worry on his sinker. xwOBA on contact was around .350 in prior ~5 starts, up to .451 in his last 3 starts. Curveball has regressed as well. Sinker location doesn’t appear wildly different to either handedness. ✂️
Pirates Johan Oviedo has added some drop to his slider as the season has progressed. Pitch was 89 mph with 3” vertical break and 5” sweep in May, FanGraphs Stuff+ of 106. It’s down to 0” vertical break with 6” sweep in July, FanGraphs Stuff+ up to 117. Driveline Baseball’s Stuff+ doesn’t really see any change to the pitch, still above average. It’s starting to overlap with his curveball more as well (still ~8 mph of velo separation there). Added drop with a slightly lower release point makes sense. Usage down from 42% to 33% in favor of his fastball, which doesn’t grade out well. Whiffs slightly up on the slider, small sample xwOBA on contact up to a frightening .588. He’s doing a slightly better job of getting the ball down to right-handed hitters over his last 3 starts, but he still misses arm-side. He’s an extremely volatile arm to me. Slider is only plus pitch, relying on location for others and locations are below average. 🏴☠️