Drew Thorpe's Debut and Unicorn Changeup. Jameson Taillon's Fastball Problem?
Drew Thorpe, Jameson Taillon, Cal Quantrill
White Sox Drew Thorpe had a solid debut: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K. He immediately has the weirdest changeup in MLB. It averaged 82 mph with 15”+ vertical break and 13” arm-side movement. No changeup thrown by a right-handed pitcher this season more than 15 times has greater than 14” vertical movement (aka, he’s backspinning this pitch a ton). His grip is below, straight four-seam orientation. He averaged 17”+ vertical at Double-A, so perhaps the MLB ball is effecting the movement profile (less lift). 🎉
His fastball is only 92 mph, 17” vertical break from a 6.2’ release. Below-average velocity is the main concern, he generated above-average swing-miss with it in the minors (26% where 22% is average). I think it played up because of the visual interaction with his changeup. His breaking balls appeared inconsistent yesterday. (Maybe the MLB ball played a part in that?) To righties, it looks like he threw a sweeper ~79 mph with 12” sweep. He also had a more death-ball shape at 83 mph with -2” vertical break and 5” sweep. To lefties, he ditched the sweeper and threw the slider ~2 mph harder. Everything here grades out below average per Stuff+ because of the velocity. He is Mr. Anti-stuff. I’m fascinated to see how he looks through a few more starts. As somebody who believes strongly in Stuff+, he’s a risky prospect to like.
Cubs Jameson Taillon is having an interesting season: 3.09 ERA, 3.87 FIP after his best outing last night (6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, BB, 5 K). His strikeout rate is down from 21% to 16%. His loss of whiffs versus righties is driving that drop, but his xSLG is down from .400+ in the second half last year to .299 this year. He cut his sinker usage from 16% to 10%, a pitch that got pounded by righties last year. That appears to be the only substantive change in mix or approach. 🐻
Succeeding versus righties more this season has highlighted his more average results versus lefties for 2 consecutive seasons. His approach is heavily focused on the outer third of the plate. He throws four-seamers and cutters away with curveballs down. His four-seam is the main concern. The swinging-strike rate has fallen from 11% to 5% and his xSLG remains above .550. Below you can see his primary location next to where he’s allowing damage. Overlap is generally not great. Hitters are covering where you’re throwing the pitch most often.
If you look back at his 2022, his four-seam and cutter were located more on the inner third of the plate and up/in. I doubt he goes back to those locations given the Cubs deliberately moved him off those spots when he came to the org in 2022. But I wonder whether throwing something inside helps cut the SLG down on his outer-third fastballs? The other angle would be to cut even more off his behind-in-count four-seam usage (which is currently 45%).
Rockies Cal Quantrill continues to fascinate. In 2022, we said he wouldn’t be able to outperform his peripherals any longer (3.58 ERA to 4.45 FIP). In 2023, he was injured and got clobbered (5.24 ERA, 4.79 FIP). This season, he’s back to his 2023 roots. He holds a 3.30 ERA with a 4.34 FIP through 14 starts. The biggest year-over-year change is a sharp increase in splitter usage to either handedness of hitter—12% to 35%. Prior to yesterday's gem in Minnesota, it was the 2nd most valuable pitch in baseball per Baseball Savant’s run value metric. 🏔️
I’d love to see even less of everything else that isn’t the splitter. To lefties, he’s being more aggressive with the splitter pre-2-strikes, throwing it 37%. But to righties, he’s throwing curveballs and cutters, while the splitter sits at 24% pre 2 strikes. And yet, his splitter’s zone rate isn’t more than 5 percentage points separated from his sinker to either handedness. I’d gamble that a jump in righty splitter usage wouldn’t drive up walks substantially and would help limit damage more than he has. I ask again, Cal, give me more splitter.