MiLB Hitter Notes v2 - 2024 Draft Names of Note
Mike Sirota, JJ Wetherholt, James Tibbs III
Version 1 of my MiLB hitter notes is available here for paid subscribers. In there, I talk about Leo De Vries, Konnor Griffin, and Arjun Nimmala. This trip ‘round the sun, we’ll look at a sample of college bats. Here are some aggregated baselines of various advanced statcast variables for reference…
I’ve found that whiff, air-pull percentage, zone contact, and chase don’t change level to level or based on age. Pitchers improve command as they ascend and age, however. Maintaining the stats I just mentioned becomes more difficult against better pitchers, and there’s likely an element of survivorship bias. Maintaining any of these numbers level to level is a good sign.
I’ll caution again that I’m more comfortable with my pitching analysis. I’ve found hitting analysis to be a great exercise. I’m still trying to figure out which exact traits to look for in the lower minors that I can be confident will “stick” at higher levels against better arms. My guess right now is that it comes down to hitting the ball hard in the air and some amalgamation of swing decisions (chase, whiff). I’ll likely miss a batch of high-contact types that start lifting for more power, but I think this approach will catch more of the “best” future major league bats. All data is as of June 16, 2025.
Mike Sirota, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
