DBacks Zac Gallen threw 3 sinkers last night for the first time this season (7 IP, 5 H, ER, 10 K). It appears he has occasionally mixed sinkers in throughout his career, but the total usage has never eclipsed 2.5%. These 3 sinkers were all thrown in the 6th and 7th innings when facing Willy Adames and Wilmer Flores for the third time. I proposed Gallen try a sinker in early June when looking at his struggles against right-handed hitters. Even if there’s light incorporation of the offering, it has utility in a cut-four-seam heavy mix like his. 😮💨
This was a much-needed bounce-back outing after a horrid 10-start stretch that saw him post a 5.17 xFIP and an 8% K-BB, with issues against both left- and right-handed hitters. What jumps out about this outing is his command. He consistently located his four-seamer arm-side down away to lefties and glove-side away to righties. Throughout May and into early June, there was far more variability. I’m fascinated to see what another team would do with his mix if he’s shipped at the deadline. The biggest upside comes with a successful slider for right-handed hitters, which he’s only had in one year of his career (2022). Can that tweak be accomplished in ~2 months?
Marlins Edward Cabrera is on a heater (7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, BB, 6 K). He has a 3.91 xFIP over his last 7 starts with a 17% K-BB, much improved from his 5.05 xFIP, 10% K-BB from his first 7 starts of the season. The big improvement comes against right-handed hitters, where Cabrera is throwing more four-seam fastballs, jumping from 5% to 18%. This is surprising given the Marlins’ focus on not using fastballs. They’re currently pacing for the second-fewest fastballs thrown (four-seam and sinker) on a rate basis in a given season, (probably) in the history of baseball, a smidge ahead of last year’s Red Sox team. For Cabrera, the four-seam has mostly been used when he’s ahead in the count, hunting swing-miss, and doing so successfully. 🐟
Cabrera is also throwing more four-seamers to left-handed hitters (13% to 25%), but the results there are more average overall. There’s reason to believe he’s being too aggressive in the zone. His four-seamer’s location is central and has a small-sample xwOBAcon of .700+. His sinker has drifted toward the center of the plate against lefties as well (see below), but the results are better, which is counterintuitive given the nature of opposite-handed sinkers. Very curious to see if Cabrera is moved at the deadline. I anticipate that wherever he goes, he will use more four-seam and sinker. His range of outcomes is massive.
Rangers Jacob deGrom now holds a 2.13 ERA / 3.26 xFIP in 17 starts despite his lowest strikeout rate since 2016 (26%). He’s throwing 25% curveball and changeup to left-handed hitters, his highest rate since 2020. I think there’s a case to be made that he should throw more changeups in non-hitters counts to lefties, given some of the damage his slider has allowed this season down in the zone. He’s been a bit boom-bust versus left-handed hitters, running a 10% barrel rate and a 26% K-BB. Versus righties, we see a similar xFIP, lower strikeout rates, but he’s allowed just 3 barrels on 120+ balls in play (~2%). All this while throwing 97% four-seam and slider. Even if he is running hot right now (I think he’s more like a 3-ERA pitcher rest of the way), he’s one of the best 15 pitchers in MLB, pacing for 170 innings for the first time since 2019. 🐐
Gallen sure needed to do something!