Let's Talk Fastballs: Jameson Taillon, Luis Castillo, Charlie Morton
Jameson Taillon, Luis Castillo, Charlie Morton
Cubs Jameson Taillon is throwing a lot of four-seam fastballs. He threw 37% four-seamers to lefties last season. That’s up to 50% this season. He threw 20% four-seamers to righties last season. That’s up to ~40% this season. His four-seamer was his most-barreled pitch versus either handedness of hitter last season. His four-seam shape is slightly better despite no notable change in release. It’s up ~1.5” vertical break and ~1.5” arm-side movement. FanGraphs Stuff+ on it has jumped from 80 to 94, a bad pitch per the model last year, to just slightly below average. 🐻
I don’t mind more four-seam to lefties from an approach standpoint, but to righties I’m more perplexed. There isn’t a material change in strike rate and his cutter-sweeper combination hasn’t been as productive (small sample), which I’d theorize connects to the reduction in inner-third sinkers to protect the breakers off the plate. You also have the element of weather, which I could see pushing Cubs pitchers to lean four-seam when ball flight is hampered. I’d expect his righty approach to feature more sinkers as the season goes on. It’s worth noting that all Cubs pitchers seem to be four-seam heavy to start the season. They lead the league by a wide margin entering yesterday’s slate (45%).
Mariners Luis Castillo is doing some early tinkering versus lefties. Apart from being down 1 mph across the board, he’s throwing a bunch of four-seamers. He used the pitch 47% last year. It’s up to 61% this year. The four-seamers he’s throwing to lefties are jammed up and inside. His average location was more elevated arm-side up lats year (see plot below). 🔱
His lefty approach was underwhelming last season, with below-average whiff and xwOBAcon. Perhaps the up-in approach will help elicit more swing-miss off the plate away? His more average performance versus lefties has been persistent over the last few seasons, without much change in approach. I like the tinkering.
Orioles Charlie Morton is elevating his fastball a ton with the Orioles. It’s one of the more dramatic changes in location I have seen so far this season. I’ll highlight the change in location to left-handed hitters below. His heatmaps look similar to right-handed hitters as well. He’s also using his four-seam more to left-handed hitters. His usage has climbed from 30% to 40%. His righty usage has stayed the same. If you ever wanted to see an example of how vertical approach angle (VAA) can be influenced by location, Morton is it. The VAA on his four-seam has gone from -5° to -4°, a massive swing from steep to flat. ⬆️
I wouldn’t say I’m too worried here. He curveball got barreled twice yesterday by left-handed hitters. He’s had some standard misses go for knocks. I wonder about the interactive effect on the rest of his mix by elevating the four-seam so much. I could see how it would actually create more of a tunnel for his big curveball to work off. Is that trade-off worth less of an ability to strike the pitch?
For Taillon, which number is which? He’s increased 4s usage to both handedness, but you listed both the increases against lefties at the top of the blurb
Lance, could we get your thoughts on some relievers thus far in a post? Is Mason Montgomery HIM?!