Ben Brown's Weird Four-Seamer. Who is Gunnar Hoglund?
Ben Brown, Gunnar Hoglund, Sonny Gray
Cubs Ben Brown continues to be a fascinating pitcher. It’s a two-pitch mix, fastball and curveball (which moves like a slider), with more control and in-zone tendencies than finite command. The peripherals continue to spit out sub-4 ERA projections. He’s fixed some issues versus righties this year by throwing his fastball less up-in and more middle-away (see below). His four-seamer’s swing-miss to righties is still non-existent, but he's jumped his ground-ball rate from 27% to 49% with the lower location. His barrel rate has been cut in half as a result. He’s cut his four-seam usage to lefties from 67% to 57%, throwing more curve in its place. Lefties are the handedness he’s had more variance against historically—more strikeouts and more barrels allowed. 🐻
Brown has a 17% K-BB, which is top-30 among starting pitchers. There has to be something about the steep approach of his high-efficiency fastball that helps it play up more than you’d expect. Among pitchers with >300 four-seamers thrown this season, his vertical approach angle (VAA) is the 5th steepest, near names like Mitchell Parker and Justin Verlander. There’s room for some kind of sinker here, even if the movement profile mimics his four-seam. Especially with the four-seam sitting less inside, there’s room for something inside to make him even better versus righties.
Athletics Gunnar Hoglund had a pair of good starts to begin his career. He has big extension (6.9’) and an above-average release height (6.1’). His four-seamer is released from 4” higher and 5” closer to the center of the rubber than his other 4 pitches (sinker, sweeper, changeup, cutter). This is odd, and not something we see frequently in MLB, but it allows him to average 19.6” vertical break on the pitch at 93.6 mph, a slightly above-average fastball per FanGraphs Stuff+. His changeup is filthy. It’s a pure chase pitch that’s 8 mph slower than his four-seamer and has 15” less vertical break (the latter is about 5” more than average). It looks like he’s baby spiking into a kick-changeup to get this movement (below). 👍
Hoglund made some pretty massive changes compared to last year. He added about 1.5 mph of velocity, changed his slider to a sweeper, added 5” of extension, and roughly maintained his release height. This means he kicked his slot (arm angle) up a lot. And this weird high-slot four-seamer he’s throwing is a different shape compared to last season (more vert, less arm side movement). I don’t think his strikeout rate will be high enough to warrant true breakout consideration, but he throws a bunch of strikes and has had pretty even splits. Heck of an improvement to turn him into a #5 starter.
Cardinals Sonny Gray has a 3.50 ERA / 3.58 FIP through 8 starts. He’s had a variety of shifts in his results—more fly balls, more barrels and less swing-miss. Compared to last year, his cutter has become more of a true cutter to righties, adding 1 mph and ~3” vertical break (less drop). He’s also in the zone more to righties with the offering (<40% to 50%), which has pulled down some swing-miss, but the trade-off is better contact quality compared to the second half of last season. 💫
Below shows his shift in sinker location to righties, which has also pulled down swing-miss on the pitch, but in this case, quelled his sinker’s barrel rate despite less ground-ball contact overall to that handedness. Gray is throwing more curveballs and sinkers to left-handed hitters, pulling down his four-seam and sweeper usage. He’s still pacing for a mid-3s ERA and a ~3-WAR season, even with some of his peripherals are ticking down. Gray should be a top-30 pitcher rest of the way.
