Corbin Burnes' New Sweeper?! Dean Kremer's Jump in Whiffs
Corbin Burnes, Dean Kremer, Julio Urias
Brewers Corbin Burnes might have a new slider. He only threw 4 yesterday, but the shape is very different than anything he’d thrown prior. It averaged 86 mph with 6” vertical break, 12” sweep. His slider this season had much less sweep, 88 mph with 1” vertical break and 6” sweep. FanGraphs Stuff+ goes from 116 to 176. Driveline with slightly less of a bump from 152 to 184. Threw 3 of 4 in zone, two whiffs on two swings. This has always been his peripheral righty pitch, but it now looks like a sweeper with a distinct amount of lift.
His sinker also had an extra 4” of drop yesterday compared to his prior ~8 starts. Velo stayed the same. Only a couple thrown, but like the slider, shape is distinct relative to what he’d been throwing prior. FanGraphs Stuff+ went from 96 to 106. This is now overlapping a lot with his changeup (still 4-5 mph of velo separation), which has hurt the grade, but I don’t expect the changeup to fall off in performance. Both of these tweaks appear aimed at righties. Given the .380 SLG he’s allowed to them this season, these feel like All-Star break tweaks to help him in the second half. Gets the Braves next, which will be a BIG test for a pitcher facing right-handed hitting. I’m pretty in on him second half if the tweaks stick. 🍻
Orioles Dean Kremer with a strong jump in whiffs in his last two outings. Those whiffs are being generated primarily by his four-seam and cutter. His four-seam picked up 1.5” vertical break and dropped 1.5” of arm-side movement over his last 2 starts compared to the month of June (getting behind the ball more, release slightly up). Location looks the same to both lefties and righties. FanGraphs Stuff+ with a small adjustment from 97 to 101. Driveline Baseball’s model more aggressive in jumping it from 106 to 139. Swing-miss from 28% to 42%. Cutter whiff has jumped from 26% to 54% in last two outings. Shape and location look identical there, getting a lot of chase there recently
His curveball has also become more vertical in his past 2 outings. Sweep on his curveball down from 13” to 9” in his last two starts, getting 1-2” more drop as well. Basically looks like it’s just more 12-6 action now with the lack of sweep. Stuff+ down from 102 to 91 with the drop in sweep but his ability to limit contact quality, even when in zone, is strong (.277 xwOBA on contact). 🍊
Dodgers Julio Urias contact quality has been stellar over his last two starts. It comes with a cut in fastball usage to righties from 51% to 39%. I’ve mentioned before that since coming back from the IL, his cutter added both velocity (+1 mph) and vertical break (+3”). Pretty standard to see added backspin with velocity increases (behind the ball more). FanGraphs Stuff+ from 100 to 116. Driveline Baseball Stuff+ went down slightly, as it might desire the version with more drop for whiffs. xwOBA on contact for the pitch is .041 over his past 2 starts versus .314 in pre-IL May. Location of his cutter to righties has been incredibly sharp in, off the plate. It was more down in May. His changeup has also been generating a ton of whiffs lately, 56% swing-miss over his last 2 starts versus 22% in May. The pitch is slightly harder, but otherwise no shape difference. Wonder if there’s some synergy going on with the changeup. Fastball is down to a 91 FanGraphs Stuff+ so using it less makes sense. ✂️