Corbin Burnes Loves His Slider. Tanner Bibee's Fastball Location

Corbin Burnes, Tanner Bibee, Jose Soriano

• Orioles Corbin Burnes is really leaning on his slider to righties. Usage in his first 5 starts was 19%, and it generated a 54% swing-miss rate (33% is average). In his last 4 starts, he’s thrown it 42%, with a season-high 46% last night. The swing-miss has come down given the increase in usage, but it’s still above average. Best part of this adjustment is that he’s increased his behind-in-count slider usage to righties from 8% to 33%, one of the main drivers of the overall change. He’s getting a crazy 83% swing rate in his last 4 starts on the pitch behind in the count (45% is average) and the expected results have been great—.152 xSLG. 📈

  • I’ve always thought behind-in-count usage optimization is an angle for teams/pitchers to take with arms, good or bad. Most of the time it just means taking a pitch that’s better and throwing it more in those situations. Or throwing fastballs less, even if it means more walks. I love what the Orioles/Burnes are doing here with this tweak. It neutralizes the primary situation where he or any pitcher would allow damage (behind in count), and hitters are staying aggressive against him, to their detriment.

• Guardians Tanner Bibee has a pretty bad lefty problem this season. His four-seam is allowing a .648 xSLG, up from .325 last year. It’s never generated swing-miss at an above-average rate, but it usually was able to neutralize contact. The difference is that he’s throwing the pitch inside more (see below). In theory, this didn’t seem like a bad idea. Although his primary fastball location was more up-away last year, the pitch neutralized contact in the zone well no matter where it was placed. 🎯

  • I mentioned this issue 2-3 weeks ago, and I’m bringing it back up again because I’m a bit surprised it hasn’t changed. I hesitate to say the fix is as simple as just moving the fastball location back up-away to left-handed hitters. But in this case… it feels like the answer? Or at least split the location into two parts of the zone, a la Javier Assad. Bibee has a 115 Driveline Command+, suggesting he can hit his target with the pitch at a plus rate. So it doesn’t seem impossible to play with inside and up-away targets with success. Do it, Bibee!

Tanner Bibee’s fastball location to lefties (2023 vs 2024)

• Angels Jose Soriano has had a roller coaster of a time in the Angels rotation, alternating good and bad starts. Yesterday was good! It’s great to see some decrease in four-seam usage here: 40% to lefties prior to April 21 and just 13% after. However, he used the pitch a ton to right-handed hitters yesterday, where it was successful. It’s not terrible gameplanning given the Cardinals are below average versus right-handed four-seamers. But I still think the pitch is being thrown too much, or if he is going to use it, find a way to elevate it more than throw it middle-away like he is and just rip the sinker as much as possible, which hitters struggle to lift. The inverse goes for his bullet slider, which grades as a plus pitch (113 Driveline Stuff+), but he can’t seem to get it down in the zone, where I think it would eat versus righties. 🔥

  • He’s in the Edward Cabrera tier of stuff with varying levels of control. I still like him and feel there’s more to open up with usage optimization. It’s rare you see his level of stuff and ability to land it in somewhere in the zone. My anti four-seam angle with his has always stemmed from the fact that his command of that pitch isn’t much better than anything else. More splitter, more curveball, please.