Should We Be Excited About Cody Ponce?
Cody Ponce, Livan Moinelo
Thoughts and data on Tatsuya Imai and Hiroto Saiki can be found within this YouTube video.
Less in-depth thoughts on Forest Griffin, along with his data, can be found in this tweet.
This post is mainly to show some data on Cody Ponce, but I figured I would throw in some thoughts on a guy not expected to come over (he would have to defect from Cuba), but dominating in the NPB, Livan Moinelo.
Cody Ponce, RHP, KBO
We last saw the now-31-year-old Cody Ponce with the Pirates in 2021, and he was not very good. He sat 93.3 on his four-seamer, had three glove-side shapes, and a bad changeup. He actually fared well against right-handed hitters but got demolished by left-handed hitters. Flash forward to 2025, and Ponce obliterated the KBO with a 1.89 ERA and a 30.3% K-BB in 180.2 innings. The two biggest changes are a velocity spike and a new changeup.
Ponce sat 95.5 mph in the KBO on his four-seamer, a notable increase from 2021. I have his max velocity up at 98.5 mph, routinely touching 97+ in outings. It goes without saying, but velocity is king. Without even considering anything else, he becomes a viable starting pitching candidate for a team afraid to spend big money this offseason in an interesting starting pitcher market. Ponce’s new kick-changeup is intriguing (grip pic here). It averaged ~8 mph of velocity separation off his four-seamer with 15” of vertical break separation. The latter is about 3” more drop than average for a pitch that close in velo to a pitcher’s four-seamer. The average spin is around 1,300, although I’ve heard from other teams that have it more around 800 rpm. He zoned the pitch at a reasonable rate, and KBO hitters had no chance. All the whiff, zone miss, and chase data on the table above will not port over anywhere near 1:1 to major league hitters. That’s why we try to analyze shape, even if shape matters less for changeups than command relative to breaking balls. I have confidence this changeup will send his poor lefty splits from past MLB years into oblivion. It’s a plus pitch and a key factor in why I think he’s an interesting candidate to impact MLB with his return.
In 2021, Ponce threw both a cutter and a gyro slider. From the data I’ve seen in the KBO, it appears this is one breaking ball and more of a cutter shape. There are blips of more of a gyro shape around 88 mph. So perhaps that old gyro slider from years past is still in the mix, and it’s just blurring slightly with his present cutter when he gets around the ball more unintentionally. Although he was fine against right-handed hitters in the past, I’m curious to see how successful he is against them back in MLB. My gut suggests the hard gyro slider and the sinker—which I see very little usage on—will both emerge as more prevalent pieces of his mix.
One data oddity that I can’t square is his four-seam zone rate. 47% is reliever territory. His changeup’s zone rate is surprisingly high for its shape, and you can foresee his cutter acting as a primary fastball in MLB, given the zone rate present. The fact that he walked just 6% of hitters with a four-seam he threw ~45% and zoned at this low of a level suggests his chase was outstanding (it was). But again, we have to contextualize for the quality of KBO hitters. Ponce will not have ~40% chase rates on everything in MLB. I expect him to have more average command (8-9% BB) and chase (low 30%’s).
Ponce feels like a great value for the price teams will pay… <$12m per year? The bet is that his fastball works at this higher level of velocity, and his changeup stymies lefites. Both are more than reasonable wagers to make given the cost involved in this decision. Mix in some projection that an MLB team makes him less four-seam reliant to right-handed hitters, and we could be looking at a strong combination of both stuff and mix. If an above-median outcome is a tick better than a league-average pitcher, let’s say 4.10 ERA, 1.18 WHIP with an 18% K-BB across 150 IP, he’s well worth a multi-year $13m AAV contract. He doesn’t have Merrill Kelly’s command, but Kelly didn’t have a 30% K-BB in his final year in the KBO before coming over (his was just 16%). There are some points in his favor that suggest he lands softer than Kelly did in his first two years back stateside. He feels like a lock to beat Erik Fedde’s 2 for $15m deal after the 2023 season. I expect his market to be robust among the non-top-end spenders in the market. Maybe a team that will allow him to start makes sense? The Cardinals, Athletics, White Sox, Nationals, and Diamondbacks all need cheap pitching.
Livan Moinelo, LHP, NPB
Moinelo has posted a pair of seasons in NPB with a walk rate around 7%. It’s a notable improvement from 2018-2023, when he was primarily a reliever. Back then, he had better strikeout rates (routinely in the high 30%’s), but the potential to post a ~17% K-BB with 150+ innings is far more appealing. Moinelo is an undersized, high-slot lefty with a vertically shaped fastball. I’d guess his arm angle is somewhere around ~50°, (40° is average). I’d expect this four-seamer to work pretty well if he were to move to MLB because he has decent extension for his height, making his arm angle hang around a release height that isn’t so high it pulls away from the effect of the carry he generates. The average fastball from a 6.2’ release in MLB has 17” of vertical break and 6” arm-side at ~95 mph. If we assume Moinelo’s four-seamer backs up slightly with the MLB ball and is more 19-19.5” vertical break and 7.5” arm-side at 93 mph, it’s still going to grade well. Without knowing how maxed out his body is, I’ll dream on another velocity jump making this an even more attractive pitch. The zone miss he generated was higher than Imai’s or Saiki’s, which is a good sign. The current MLB fastball shape comp is something like Robbie Ray or Dietrich Enns, both taller than Moinelo, so not perfect assimilations.
A large feature of Moinelo’s profile is the advanced strike-throwing and zone data to back up said strike-throwing, mixed with good whiff and chase on his secondaries. A guy like Ponce in the KBO, I’m a little more skeptical of holding such a strong walk rate, but for Moinelo, I have no issue projecting 6-7%. The larger question with Moinelo is whether his secondaries are good enough to survive in MLB. His slider is an interesting lift-and-cut shape. It roughly comps to the MLB sliders of Alex Vesia, Austin Gomber, and Joey Cantillo, which are all dependent on location more than blowing hitters away in the zone (as you can see from Moinelo’s results above). His curveball is a massive, loopy pitch with enough drop to work at 77-78 mph. His changeup showed decent results and command, acting more as a lefty pitch. And his cutter will be extremely command-dependent, given it has below-average shape for the velocity it sits. Moinelo doesn’t appear great at holding velo as he gets around the ball, which is standard for pitchers with more efficient spin. I’m cautious of projecting big success if he were to come to MLB at some point, given how much more meddling his non-fastball shapes will look relative to other MLB arms. I’m curious if an org views obvious tweaks to his orientations or an added pitch to elicit as much “stuff” given his velocity as possible.
I’m bearish on Moinelo relative to the market, which mostly views him as an amazing pitcher. He’s a zone-pounder without great stuff (it’s good) that would transition to MLB with the hopes of holding a 26% strikeout. I would expect the command to stick, but the strikeout rate to fall back. I could see him being a 20-22% strikeout, 7% walk kind of arm that struggles to miss bats enough for his ceiling to actualize. If he comes to MLB, this would project him for more of a 4.20-4.30 ERA, unless there’s some barrel-missing trait which I’m blind to.
You were so close on Ponce's annual salary, as he's getting $10M AAV. Good call, pal!
Hey Lance. Who would you rough comp be for Ponce given his arsenal/traits/projected command etc?