Chris Paddack's New Sinker. Paul Skenes' Strikeouts are Back
Chris Paddack, Paul Skenes, Michael McGreevy, Ranger Suarez
Twins Chris Paddack has a new sinker. He’s thrown ~30 of them, most of them not tracked by Statcast, and the majority coming in his last 6 starts. It’s a pure dead-zone pitch, averaging 93.5 mph with 15” vertical break and 14” arm-side movement. He’s using it mostly in the first or second pitch of an at-bat to right-handed hitters, with hard inside set-ups from his catcher (notably different from his four-seamer’s away or up targets). Paddack has a 3.53 ERA in 13 starts this season. Despite the strong performance, he’s running an abnormally low BABIP (.237) and not generating as much swing-miss as 2024. Peripherals project a ~4.20 ERA going forward, which is roughly in line with prior year. His four-seam usage to righties is up from 45% to 54%, but it’s mostly connected to this new sinker in early count spots, allowing him to use his four-seamer more in late-count spots. 👍
Chris Paddack’s Sinker Grip With the added sinker, Paddack’s four-seamer has become more precise to the outer third to righties and up to lefties. 53% of his four-seamers were in the upper third of the zone or higher to lefties last year. That number is up to 59% this season. 46% of his four-seamers were on the outer third to right-handed hitters last season, that number is up to 59% this season. There’s less miss into the high-damage parts of the zone (see below). Whether this is sustainable remains a question. I think I’ll mostly defer to peripherals, but I’m more confident in his ability to limit damage to righties with his new sinker.
Cardinals Michael McGreevy with 11.2 IP, 4 ER, BB, 10 K in his first two MLB appearances of 2025. He’s 6’4” with 6.8’ extension and an average release height. He throws ~60% sinker-sweeper to righties and ~55% four-seam+cutter to lefties. FanGraphs Stuff+ likes his sinker the most, giving it a 105 Stuff+, likely connected to the depth he gets on the pitch. It averages ~4” vertical break with 14” arm-side movement at ~92 mph. That’s two ticks slower than the average sinker but with ~3” less vertical break (more drop). That drop has allowed him to zone the pitch >60% and still generate a 63% ground-ball rate against right-handed hitters. Both of those numbers are about 10 percentage points above average for a sinker. 🧐
The question mark here is more about the lefty approach. If he doesn’t generate whiffs, how will the contact quality hold up trying to top-rail MLB hitters with four-seamers and cutters? His four-seam had 25% whiffs at Triple-A (above average), but the cutter was much lower. I’m fine agreeing with the sub-4 ERA projection, but there’s limited upside given the sub-20% strikeout rate. Maybe more sinker to left-handed hitters could help? Ones with this much drop are more platoon neutral.
Pirates Paul Skenes’ strikeouts are back with a vengeance. In his 5-start stretch from April 19 to May 12 he had a 12% K-BB rate. In his 6 starts since, he’s more than doubled that number to 26%. He also made some approach changes along the way. His changeup has gone from 13% to 34% usage in two-strike counts to left-handed hitters. To righties, he’s cut his splinker usage in half to 10% and is instead favoring his sweeper and two-seam fastball. The latter, which is new this season, is running a preposterous 48% chase rate (>30% is good for secondaries). 🏴☠️
It seems like the talk of Skenes trading strikeouts for innings is mostly gone. He’s found a way to keep the strikeouts and pitch into the 7th inning or later in four of his last 5. Perhaps this is a hot streak, but it may close whatever gap there was to Logan Webb for the NL Cy Young lead.
Phillies Ranger Suarez changed his main putaway pitch in two-strike counts to righties from his curveball to his changeup. Last season, he threw his curveball 29% in two-strike spots to righties. That’s down to 18% this season. He’s pushed his changeup from 17% to 31% in return. His curveball had strong swing-miss last year but held a .444 xwOBAcon in advantageous spots (.340 is average). Perhaps the idea was to move off the pitch for one that doesn’t generate as much whiff but is difficult to lift and barrel. 🤙
