Checking in on John Means. Tyler Glasnow's Slider. Chris Devenski: Rays Project
John Means, Tyler Glasnow, Chris Devenski, Luke Weaver, Brandon Pfaadt
Orioles John Means with some changes since returning from Tommy John surgery. First thing that jumps out is his slightly different fastball shape. In 2022, the pitch had 22” vertical break with 8” arm-side movement. In his 3 starts back, it’s down to 20” with 7” arm-side movement. You could theorize that he’s cutting the pitch slightly more here given the drop in vertical. FanGraphs Stuff+ on his fastball is at 100, it was 110 last year. His slider picked up ~1 mph and he’s getting behind it a bit more, FanGraphs Stuff+ there has fallen from 121 to 99. His changeup has also lost ~3” arm-side movement, swing-miss there is down around 10 percentage points, but his fastball has picked up some swing-miss, which has offset that loss and resulted in a similar bat-missing ability across the board. 🏥
Rays Tyler Glasnow has started to back off his slider of late. To righties, usage on the pitch has gone from 43% down to 32%, four-seam usage has come up from 42% to 49%. This could be due to some struggles versus righties, .475 xwOBA overall between Aug 14 and Sep 6. That has come down since adjusting usage. To lefties, however, slider issues haven’t subsided. Four-seam usage there has come up from 39% to 50% to counter. This doesn’t really seem to be a shape thing, misses around the middle of the zone are just getting hammered. Fastball performance hasn’t deteriorated with the increase in usage. ☀️
DBacks Brandon Pfaadt threw his sinker more than his four-seamer for the first time this season. He started throwing the pitch back in July after only having moderate success with his four-seam. FanGraphs Stuff+ actually has the sinker slightly higher than the four-seam on grade—104 vs 100. The xwOBA on contact has been a bit higher for the sinker and it appears to be primarily due to right-handed hitters taking advantage of the inner-third. Perhaps a bit concerning given that’s where you would assume the optimal location is. He’s rocking even splits overall, slug is high for both. Curious if he’s having sequencing issues? Is it tipping? I thought it was his changeup, but he’s mostly tabled the pitch and the problems persist. His Stuff+ isn’t stellar but getting hit this hard seems odd. 🐍
Rays Chris Devenski with a pretty standard Rays tweak since leaving the Angels. Fastball usage is down from 37% to 26%, sweeper usage has come up from 4% to 17%. He’s also traded some slider usage for changeup usage, the latter of which is now up to 50%. It’s worth noting his velocity is down ~1 mph across the board when comparing back to June-July, his extension is also down 2-3” in the same time period. Perhaps some fatigue setting in but the Rays have somehow gotten his overall swing-miss up from 18% to 38%. ☀️
Yankees Luke Weaver has backed off breaking balls with his 3rd new team this season. His sweeper and curveball have both been thrown under 3% of the time after being 15%+ pitches with both the Mariners and Reds. His release height is up 1-2” compared to CIN/SEA, and his four-seam added 2” vertical break and dropped ~1 mph. Driveline Baseball’s Stuff+ remains unchanged here, but feels like Yankees are playing with something mechanically. Four-seam, cutter and changeup all moving arm-side more in his repertoire. Four-seam xwOBA on contact is down below .350 for the first time this season (small sample). 🗽