Carlos Rodon's Four-Seam Regression. Dodgers Tinkered with Ryan Yarbrough
Ryan Yarbrough, Carlos Rodon, Gavin Williams
Dodgers Ryan Yarbrough has changed his mix with the Dodgers. He mixes all his pitches in to each handedness, but with the Royals he primarily threw his changeup to righties (32%) and sinker-curveball to lefties (82% combined). With the Dodgers, he’s cut his changeup usage in half and is primarily throwing cutters (37%) and sinkers. To lefties, the sinker-curve combo has stayed in tack, but the Dodgers have increased his curveball usage considerably—39% to 55%, and it’s now his primary pitch to them as opposed to his sinker. He’s not lighting the world on fire with these changes, but he’s generating more swing-miss versus lefties and his contact quality looks slightly better versus righties. No dramatic location adjustments. Right-handed sinkers appear to be much more up/in, cutters are above the zone more. Curveball to lefties is more inside too, instead of backdoor as much.
Also worth noting that his extension and release are down 2-3” each (usually inversely correlated). My guess is that they’ve lowered his slot. Result is a ~1mph velocity jump. The Dodgers rightfully receive praise for making pitchers better, and it’s interesting to me that most of the time the immediate thing that changes is simply mix along, rather than a more complex tweak. Makes you wonder whether other teams need to be more liberal with mix adjustments, even during times of success. 👑
Yankees Carlos Rodon has had a relatively unlucky 4-start stretch. 5.40 ERA compared to a 4.22 FIP. The main issue is that the contact quality allowed on his four-seam and slider to righties has regressed. Fastball xwOBA on contact to righties is up 100 points, slider is up over 150 points. The fastball regression is the most interesting thing here. The underlying shape and velocity on everything he’s throwing look comparable to last season. Only thing that has changed is that his release height is down 2-3”, which could, in theory, change the visual of the pitch even if the movement/velo are consistent. The swing rate on the pitch is up from 54% to 68%, and it appears that righties are starting to cover the pitch in the zone more, particularly when he misses it glove-side up (see below). I’m curious if hitters just know he’s throwing a pretty simplified mix and doesn’t have anything hard/inside? But that isn’t too fulfilling of an answer given his same approach worked for the prior 2 seasons. 🤷♂️
Rodon’s four-seam xwOBA to righties—2022 vs 2023 Guardians Gavin Williams is seeing some swing-miss regression. His slider swing miss to righties has fallen from 42% in August to 26% in his last 3 starts. FanGraphs Stuff+ has actually jumped there from 70 to 97 due to a 1 mph velocity uptick with sacrificing shape. To left-handed hitters, his four-seam swing-miss has fallen from 30% to 7%. FanGraphs Stuff+ has fallen from 117 to 108 due to a ~1 mph velocity dip and <1” reduction in vertical break. The drop in whiffs could be due to the shape and a potential change in location. His August four-seam location to lefties was middle-in, hovering around the plate, whiffs were coming off his natural arm-side miss to the outer third / up-away portion of the zone. Over his past few starts, he’s moved his four-seam location to the outer-third of the plate and his swing-miss has disappeared. I feel like this could be a location thing, given he now isn’t really pitching inside at all to lefties aside from an occasional slider. 🤔
Gavin Williams’ four-seam swing-miss to lefties, August 2023 vs September 2023 Heatmaps courtesy of TruMedia
