Carlos Rodon's Command. Chase Silseth's Wacky Mix
Chase Silseth, Carlos Rodon, Graham Ashcraft, Jon Gray
Angels Chase Silseth has a new breaking ball. His prior stint in the majors featured what I think is four different cutter/sliders. To lefties, he threw a cutter up at 91 mph (10” vertical break, FanGraphs Stuff+ of 110) and kind of a downer-slider around 85 mph (-5” vertical break, FanGraphs Stuff+ of 99). To righties, he threw both of the lefty variants plus a sweeper with 10”+ sweep and more of a gyro-ball with <5” vertical break. Now that we have that out of the way, yesterday he scrapped all of those pitches and just threw a big, sweepy curveball. 81 mph, -10” vertical break, 11” sweep. FanGraphs Stuff+ only a 92, but he threw it 46% of the time and generated 67% swing-miss. I would imagine against a team with more intimidating left-handed hitters, he breaks out one of the cutter variants, but going starkly away from what he showed in May seemed to work. 👼
Reds Graham Ashcraft has righted the ship after an abysmal stretch during May + June. On the shapes side of things, nothing appears drastically different. Most notable change is that his cutter is picking up 2” more cut when comparing May and June to his last 4 starts. This has pushed the FanGraphs Stuff+ grade from 100 to 108. Usage appears comparable as well. And yet his cutter xwOBA on contact has fallen from .468 to .299 in his last 4 starts, slider has fallen from .503 to .302. Both considerable changes. Cutter location to righties in particular appears more down-away in his last 4 starts, lefty cutter location is actually more middle of the plate than inside. He’s done a better job of eliminating arm-side, up misses on his slider to lefties. Righty slider is catching more of the plate. He’s sitting on a 1.82 ERA vs a 4.55 FIP in his last 4 starts. Feels like this won’t sustain, especially with no drastic underlying tweaks. ✂️
Rangers Jon Gray’s extension fell noticeably yesterday. He extends slightly more on his four-seam than his slider, but both were down upwards of 4-5” yesterday compared to his average in late May + June. His velocity appeared down as well, roughly 1 mph across the board. Both the velocity and extension variables fluctuated a bit last start as well, this feels like further confirmation that he continues to work through things mechanically. His four-seam has also lost some vertical break in his last two outings, pushing his FanGraphs Stuff+ down from 86 to 71. Doesn’t feel like he’s been right since hitting the IL with a blister issue in early June. 🐺
Yankees Carlos Rodon has some slight fastball difference compared to last year. The pitch had 18” vertical break and 6” arm-side at 95.5 mph last year, it has averaged at 17” vertical break with 7” arm-side this year at 95 mph. FanGraphs Stuff+ has taken a sharp hit, from 113 to 96. Release height is slightly lower this year, which could have some effect on shape. His slider is down 1” sweep as well, but the Stuff+ adjustment there is much smaller. The more noticeable thing to me is his fastball zone rate. He was up around 56% last year, that’s down to 47% this year. Slider zone rate stable makes me think the finite fastball command is just taking some time to come back after the late start. 3/4 of the fastball barrels he’s allowed have been middle of the plate as well. 🤷♂️