How is Matthew Liberatore Doing This? Kyle Harrison, Trevor Rogers Check-ins

Matthew Liberatore, Trevor Rogers, Kyle Harrison

• Cardinals Matthew Libeartore has a 2.73 ERA / 2.52 FIP after 10 starts with no signs of slowing down. One thing I missed in my initial thoughts about Liberatore was that most of his adjustments were attack plan changes compared to last year. The big one was less four-seam and sinker to righties, instead tripling his changeup usage to 20%. Most of this is concentrated in either behind-in-count or early count situations. When he is behind, his xwOBA on contact is 100 points better than average. More interesting is that he continues to tweak. When we compare April to May, he’s cut his sinker usage in half. He’s also pushed his four-seam usage up from 19% to 32% in two-strike spots. Behind in count, he’s pulled back on his slider for more cutters. 👍

  • Part of Liberatore’s emergence is his willingness to pivot off 50%+ fastballs, which was common in nearly every situation last year. He’s a complex pitcher to digest because of the usage diversity in various count states. He’s also not reliant on one pitch for success. His four-seam, curve, changeup and slider all grade out well above average from a run values standpoint. I’m kind of enamored with Libby. I see why it’s working (I think). I’m unsure it should be working this well. And yet I think it’s fair to assume he’ll beat even his most aggressive projection, which is a 3.80 ERA rest of season with around a strikeout per inning behind the best defense in MLB.

• Orioles Trevor Rogers got some of his old velocity back. His four-seamer averaged 93.3 mph yesterday, up from 92.1 mph last year, but still not at his 94.6 mph peak back when he dominated in 2021. He also has a new sweeper, which he threw just 3 times, it’s 78 mph with 14-15” sweep (should grade below average). Nothing to the naked eye jumps out as being mechanically different. From an approach standpoint, he’s basically turfed his sinker to right-handed hitters. He threw it 23% last season, mostly in behind-in-count spots. It’s down to just 4% usage this season. He’s pushed most of that sinker usage over to his changeup and short slider. His four-seam is also his primary fastball to lefties now, a change from his sinker which pushed 40% usage to that handedness last season. 🤷‍♂️

  • It’s clear the Orioles didn’t like his sinker, which makes sense given it’s arsenal-worst .428 xwOBAcon and low whiff rate in 2024. Otherwise, I don’t see enough here to be sold on a resurgence. While he was ripping more four-seamers, it didn’t appear to beat hitters at ~93 mph. He just zoned the heck out of it (79%), and it worked. I’ll reserve judgment until he gets 2 more starts because his next one lines up against the White Sox.

• Giants Kyle Harrison sat 94.7 mph on his four-seamer yesterday in his first start of the season (4 IP) and held that velocity into the 4th inning. He sat 92.5 mph last season. The simple way to look at that improvement: four-seamers 92-93 mph allowed a .481 SLG and four-seamers 94-95 mph allowed a .401 SLG (2024-2025). With this velo boost, he threw the pitch 74% yesterday with a 67% zone rate (56% is average). His 36% zone-miss rate this season on the pitch is the third highest among four-seamers in MLB this season (min 90 thrown). This will likely decrease as he faces hitters multiple times in games as a starter, but should stay well above-average for a starter. The 2-mph boost applies to his slurve and changeup as well, the latter he has backed off usage on, falling from 23% to just 8% this season. 🔥

  • I’m not sure why he’d cut back on his changeup. His slurve has routinely failed to generate any notable whiff or chase numbers, and it’s the same story this year, even with the small velocity jump. His changeup was a better weapon last year against righties. The fastball velocity and performance as a reliever have made the 16 percentage point four-seam usage jump reasonable. If there was one pitcher I could give a viable non-fastball to, it’s Harrison. For now, it seems like it will forever be a search. I’d bring back the changeup with his added velocity. ~87-88 with near 0 vertical break has to be able to miss bats or at least put balls on the ground.