A Trio of NL Central Arms Made BIG Changes
Freddy Peralta, Andrew Abbott, Colin Rea, Jackson Jobe
Brewers Freddy Peralta has overhauled his non-fastball mix to right-handed hitters. I noticed this back on Opening Day, but Peralta continues to work with minimal slider this season—3% compared to 30% last year to righties. Instead, he’s throwing a bunch of changeups and curveballs. He’s also shifted over considerably (~7”) toward the 3B side of the rubber this year (see below). His horizontal release is 3.5’ from the center of the rubber, further toward 3B than 98% of MLB right-handers. He’s added 4 percentage points to his swinging-strike and 9 to his righty chase rate, all signs that the unexpected approach flip and new horizontal angles are working. 🍺
His results look great so far, and his xwOBA on contact is down ~80 points overall, likely due to the heavy changeup usage. My only concern is that he’s only in-zone 40%, the second lowest in baseball, minimum 3 starts (sample of 139 pitchers). I wonder if the walk rates step back slightly as he progresses through the season, or if the changeup is just that good.
Reds Andrew Abbott’s arm angle is up ~4° compared to last year. His fastball has added 2” vertical break and is down ~1.5 mph. FanGraphs Stuff+ sees no difference in grade compared to last year (still average). His changeup shape looks different too. The pitch is around the same velocity but has 4” less vertical break (more drop) with lower spin by about 400 rpm. He has some confidence in the offering too, as he pushed its usage from 20% to 32% versus righties through his first two starts. Swing-miss and chase are both way up in this small sample. 🤙
Abbott also has a new cutter, which he’s thrown 5 times, all in the first or second pitch of an at-bat to righties. Usage is still pretty low (~5%). He’s also hammering down-and-away from righties, as opposed to elevating away like he did last season (see below). He’s made a lot of changes in his righty approach and mix overall, which means we probably need more than a few starts to gauge the overall result. My initial impression is pretty positive, especially if the cutter can become a weapon inside to righties.
Cubs Colin Rea four-seam fastball usage has skyrocketed. He threw four-seamers 18% last year to righties, leading mostly with his sinker. His four-seam usage this year is up to 43%. Similar situation versus lefties—his usage is up from 21% to 59%. I guess that the Cubs think the shape has improved from the prior year, but it’s a bunch of subtle things aggregating into a shape that FanGraphs’ Stuff+ model still thinks is average shape. Rea’s arm angle is down ~3 degrees, his release height is down <2”, he’s up marginally in vertical break, and his velo is sitting 94 this year instead of 93. His overall results on the pitch are slightly worse, but given the tripling of usage, I think you’d grade the adjustment as a success (so far). 🐻
Rea also has a new gyro slider that he’s throwing mostly to righties. It’s ~84 mph with -4” vertical break and 6” glove-side movement. I think the key with the pitch is that it’s in-zone a lot more than his sweeper, even if the swing-miss and chase are worse. I also like that he’s using it >10% in all situations (even, ahead, and behind to righties). Cubs remain atop the league in four-seam usage despite a bottom 5 Stuff+ on those four-seamers, mainly because their four-seamers are the 5th slowest on average in baseball. It’s a weird approach that even persisted through some hitter-helping wind at Wrigley Field yesterday.
Tigers Jackon Jobe made a small lefty adjustment. In his last two starts, he’s pulled down his four-seam usage from 44% to 28%, pushing the usage of his curveball and changeup. The main usage adjustment comes in non-two-strike situations. His small-sample swinging-strike rate has doubled from 9% to 18%. Something to monitor in his next few starts. His righty swing-miss is still super low. 🐅