Spencer Strider Looks Different! David Festa's New Righty Approach
Spencer Strider, David Festa, Gavin Williams
Braves Spencer Strider has returned from internal brace surgery. His extension looks identical, but his release height is down ~2.5”, implying his arm angle has dropped slightly. He had a 46° arm angle last year (40° is average). I’m guessing he’s closer to 40° this season. Toronto’s dome, like Tropicana, inflates vertical break. I wonder if he’s more 17-17.5” instead of 18”+, which would make more sense with the arm angle drop. He was also jamming the pitch up in the zone a ton. He was mostly down-and-away from righties with his fastball last season. Yesterday looked more like 2023’s location. The effect of a slightly worse fastball from a lower slot on his slider effectiveness and zone rates will be interesting to monitor. 🏥
His changeup was dropping more at the same velocity. The 10” vertical break he had last season is down to 5” this season, a considerable decrease, and a better shape overall. His slider also picked up ~3” glove-side movement (more sweep), going from 3.5” to 7” horizontal. Both of these shape changes, given his grips look the same, confirm the lower slot post-internal-brace. I don’t think it’s a negative that his slot is lower, especially if the velocity is still there (can he get back to sitting 97?). If not, it might necessitate less four-seam long term? And perhaps higher walks, more swing-miss. But if there’s anybody that is going to tinker and adjust, it’s Strider.
Twins David Festa has a new sinker and looks good through 2 starts (9 IP, 8 H, 2 BB, 10 K). The pitch averages 95 mph with 16” vertical break and 13” arm-side movement. It’s basically another four-seam fastball because of how high his slot is. There’s enough horizontal separation from his four-seam (~10”) for it to work versus righties. The presence of the sinker appears to have him sitting more away with his four-seam to righties instead of middle (see below). It’s a subtle adjustment, but one that appeared at Triple-A and I think is intentional. Given how his four-seamer played to righties last year (not good), it’s an adjustment I like. His lefty approach looks pretty identical to last season. 👍
I know everybody is clamoring for Zebby Matthews, but Festa is a very viable fill-in, especially with this overhaul in his righty approach. Given his Festa graduated my top 40 pitching prospects list that I updated for 2025, but he would’ve slotted in as a top-20 prospect, right near Zebby Matthews.
Guardians Gavin Williams is off to a rocky start (4.58 ERA, 4.33 xFIP in 4 starts). He was a breakout pick of mine in spring. He’s in a weird spot where his results are worse, but his swinging strikes are up and barrels allowed are both down. He’s in the zone just 40% of the time to right-handed hitters, down from 49% last season. This is due to a combination of more fastball up away from righties and his sweeper living below the zone. Both his fastball and cutter were in zone a bit more versus righties last season. It feels like these pitches are separating earlier and hurting him, but the data shows more whiff and more chase. 😬
I think he needs another in-zone pitch to righties. I’m unsure if it’s bringing back a version of the cutter he was throwing last year. Perhaps it’s adding some kind of runner two-seam to cover the inner third of the plate, but I struggle to see the full breakout happening with the current approach. So yes, I guess I’m backtracking a bit from spring, where he was lighting the world on fire with an improved fastball that lost most of the carry gains it appeared to have in Arizona. Maybe this just isn’t the kind of arm that needs a sweeper shape? I get trying to solve for his righty woes, but he’s relying a lot on righty discipline (or lack thereof) rather than pitcher strength.
Lance, nice write up on Festa. Have you looked at Bailey Ober at all? His velocity seems way down, but he’s still getting his typical results (since the first start, although that now may be a typical Ober first start as well)? Thanks for all the great insights!