Spencer Strider is Cutting Everything. Does Zac Gallen Need a Sinker?

Spencer Strider, Zac Gallen, Landen Roupp

• Braves Spencer Strider is sitting 95.1 mph on his fastball after coming back from his hamstring injury (and offseason internal brace). He sat 97 mph last season. FanGraphs Stuff+ has his fastball down from 106 to 96, largely due to his velocity drop and how a subtle lowering of his arm angle has affected his shapes. Strider is also cutting the ball more this season. The spin efficiency on his four-seam is down from 99% last year and in 2023 to 95% this season. His four-seam and changeup have less arm-side movement, and his slider and curveball have more drop and glove-side movement. 😢

  • My overall takeaway is that Strider’s fastball ends up too centralized for his new level of stuff, even with the Braves using non-central locations pre-two-strikes against righties. Strider shifted about 8” toward the first-base side of the rubber in his start before yesterday’s outing (see below). It appears he stuck to that rubber placement last night. Perhaps it’s a subtle way for him to move his sights and thus fastball location, although he allowed 4 barrels on the pitch last night. He might need to expand his mix to survive.

Spencer Strider’s placement on the rubber (2024 vs last 2 starts)

• DBacks Zac Gallen has regressed from his mediocre April but bounced back last night. Gallen had a 3.99 FIP and 14% K-BB over his first 8 starts of the season. Over his last 5 outings, he’s fallen to a 5.35 FIP and a 7% K-BB. His curveball usage to lefties is up from 21% to 31%, as he’s pulled back on his fastball. The more pressing problem has been right-handed hitters, who are barreling him at a 14% clip over his last 5 outings alongside an 11% K-BB. Around his May 11 start, he moved his four-seamer more up-in against righties compared to away (see below). While the results have been largely ineffective on the four-seam with this change (although it worked against Riley, Acuna today), his curveball has improved from a swinging-strike standpoint. Perhaps that was the intent all along—better curveball performance? With all this said, he has made his entire career on righty execution glove-side (away). I expect that to come back soon, but to embrace that inner-third coverage, why not try a sinker? 🐍

  • Gallen has had an odd year. He’s in the zone more than last season, and yet his walk rate is up. Yesterday was an encouraging bounce-back (7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 4 K) for a pitcher who Jeff Passan recently speculated could be on the block if the DBacks choose to sell their expiring contracts. The results have largely been mediocre in his walk year, but he’s the pitcher I’d want the most for the postseason run, more than Sandy Alcantara.

• Giants Landen Roupp has leaned on his changeup a ton in his recent outings. He has a 0.40 ERA over his last 4 starts after a 5.10 ERA in his prior 6. It hasn’t come against the strongest opponents, but his changeup usage is up from 8% to 23%. He’s now throwing it 15% to righties and 27% to lefties, with no specific count state dominating the usage flip. The usage casualty has been his curveball, which is down from 57% to 38% in two-strike counts. Roupp’s zone rate on the changeup is a super low 27% in his last 4 outings (40% is average), but the pitch has an above-average chase rate and is running a 67% ground-ball rate when in play, 20 percentage points above average. It appears the league has not been able to adjust to his usage change. 🖖

  • FanGraphs Stuff+ likes the curveball more than the changeup, so this strategy is a bit of a deviation from the obvious, but it’s working. Versus righties, we’re also seeing Roupp move his sinker inside more, and to lefties, he’s elevating the pitch more (wacky but effective). I’m fine with a sub-4 ERA projection for Roupp rest of season. He’s Logan Webb-lite.

Landen Roupp’s Changeup Grip (2025)