Chris Sale is Inevitable. Slade Cecconi Sinkers Have Arrived

Chris Sale, Slade Cecconi, Cade Povich

• Braves Chris Sale moved his ERA from 5.40 in April to 1.37 in May. He’s throttling his slider to righties. Usage is up from 41% to 54% when comparing April to May. The majority of that change comes in two-strike situations, where he’s backed off his changeup and pushed his slider to 65% usage. His slider is generating 62% chase in two-strike spots, nearly double that of the average for two-strike sliders. 🏆

  • Versus left-handed hitters, Sale has actually started throwing less slider, instead pushing both his four-seam and sinker usage. His two fastballs total over 50% of his mix to lefties in May. Most of that adjustment has come in early count situations, where he was throwing 52% slider and is now throwing 50%+ four-seamer. The Hall-of-Famer continues to deal in his age-36 season. A ~3.20 ERA rest of season feels bankable.

• Guardians Slade Cecconi threw sinkers to both lefties and righties yesterday (6 IP, 5 H, ER, 2 BB, 6 K). I was bummed neither the cutter or sinker he threw at Triple-A were present in his Guardians 2025 debut. In his second outing, however, he threw 8% sinkers to righties and 11% sinkers to lefties. The pitch averaged 93 mph with 7” vertical break and 17” arm-side movement. This is on par with an average sinker shape with a touch more arm-side. While I’m surprised he threw 10%+ sinkers to lefties, I’m more surprised 5 of the 8 sinkers he threw were in two-strike counts, given the pitch hasn’t missed a bat this season (yes, no whiff at Triple-A on 30+ thrown). It seems like his two-strike intent is mostly to freeze hitters with the pitch, which he did successfully against Torkelson yesterday (see below). It also looks like Cecconi tried to elevate one cutter in a two-strike situation to Kerry Carpenter. That’s the pitch to keep an eye on. 📈

  • When I wrote about Cecconi last week, I failed to mention the change in his four-seam shape. He averaged 15” vertical break and 14” arm-side movement at 94.4 mph last year. With a subtle raise in his slot this year, he’s averaging 16” vertical break and 10” arm-side movement at the same velocity. FanGraphs Stuff+ has him with average stuff and plus locations. I’m comfortable being aggressive as he rounds into form. A sub-4.20 ERA rest of season feels more than likely.

Slade Cecconi backdoor sinker vs Spencer Torkelson (4th inning, 2-2 count)

• Orioles Cade Povich is trying to stop the bleeding for one of the worst rotations in MLB. He has a 3.57 FIP in May compared to a 6.35 in April. He’s started to pitch inside with his four-seamer more as the season has progressed. His four-seam just isn’t succeeding at the top of the zone, and when he goes inside, his arm-side miss is where all of his May barrels on the pitch have occurred. His counter has been to throw more curveballs, both in the first or second pitch of an at-bat as well as in two-strike spots, where the pitch is hovering above 30% usage in May. 🤷‍♂️

  • I think the optimal location for his four-seamer is up-away to righties. Another concern is that he hasn’t generated a whiff in a two-strike count on his volatile splitter thing to a right-handed hitter in over a month (April 18th was his last two-strike splitter whiff). The pitch makes sense in theory, but with a 30% swing rate in two-strike counts, I’m not sure it’s worth trying to coax hitters to chase. I wonder if he’s in the market for a bullet slider. Or can the cutter he threw last year (that for bludgeoned) be more of an inside pitch to help the four-seam push up-away?