Bowden Francis' Evolution. Freddy Peralta's Four-Seam Problems
Bowden Francis, Freddy Peralta, Brandon Pfaadt
Blue Jays Bowden Francis 12 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, BB, 15 K in his last 2 starts against the Orioles and Angels. I like the template of pitcher he is. It’s big extension, decent fastball shape, and slightly below-average velocity with a splitter. My issue has always been that his primary pitch is a big, slow curveball. Over these last 2 starts, we’ve seen Francis add a sinker and throw his slider and splitter more than his curveball, which is the exact way to evolve as a fastball-curveball arm. FanGraphs Stuff+ likes the splitter (112 Stuff+) and doesn’t love the slider (92 Stuff+) as much as the curveball (103 Stuff+). 🇨🇦
This is a case of Stuff+ liking a pitch in a vacuum but one that rarely works in the context of a true starting pitcher. Righties are more of an issue than lefties for Francis. He’s been great in these 2 starts against them. I think it’s largely because he’s throwing 20%+ slider instead of 20%+ curveball. Although the slider shape doesn’t pop on paper—82 mph with -2” vertical break and 6” sweep—perhaps there’s something here in his release or how the pitch works off his fastball visually that helps it out (currently a 60%+ swing-miss). It could also just be that him using the pitch a lot is new. I want more sample of the slider’s performance against MLB hitters before we disregard Stuff+ on the pitch. I like this new Bowden Francis more than the curveball-heavy one.
Brewers Freddy Peralta has a 4.82 ERA, 5.67 FIP over his last 7 starts. He held a 4.03 ERA, 3.91 FIP from May to June. His main issue of late is against right-handed hitters. His slider has shortened up slightly, adding 2 mph and losing ~3” sweep. Normally, this would be bad, but we’ve seen slider morphing before with Peralta. I think the bigger issue comes from his behind-in-count fastball location. Notice in the heatmaps below how he pitched more inside when he was behind in May-June. In the heatmap on the right, he’s more middle to middle down, and the pitch is getting clobbered in the zone (.500+ xSLG). 🍻
This feels like natural variance rather than intentional, called-strike grabbing in the bottom third of the zone. Perhaps there’s something mechanically that’s pulling him to his glove side more? His two-strike fastball location to righties is still elevated properly, so it seems fishy it would just be a behind-in-count mechanics issue. Maybe it’s more intent and desire to induce weak contact, which I don’t think is the purpose of his four-seam. If he finishes off the year strong in these behind-in-count spots, I’d bet there’s more of a tendency to pitch up and in.
DBacks Brandon Pfaadt is on track for a quiet 3-fWAR season with ~190 IP. He has a 3.24 ERA with a 2.44 FIP since July 1, a heater compared to his 4.10 ERA and 4.21 FIP from May-June. Usage has been pretty identical against righties and lefties when comparing each period. He’s still more vulnerable versus lefties by a decent margin, but he’s crushed righties to the point of it not mattering. His righty swinging-strike rate has jumped from 13% to 17% and he’s cut over 60 points of his xSLG since July. 🐍
You can make a case that he should throw less four-seam to righties. The pitch gets hit hard in the air a lot, but it’s become a good two-strike swing-miss pitch for him when he wants to elevate. The level-up he still has available is to move his average sinker location to righties more inside. This is especially true for behind-in-count situations where he’s throwing the pitch to his glove side away from righties. I think it would open up his four-seam and sweeper away more from a swing-miss standpoint.