Examining a Pair of Weird Lefties. Yusei Kikuchi's Curveball
Yusei Kikuchi, Jacob Lopez, Colton Gordon
Angels Yusei Kikuchi is throwing a bunch of curveballs to righties over his last four outings. His usage is up from 11% in his first 13 outings of the season to 29% in his last four. He threw it 38% to righties last night, the second most he’s thrown the pitch on a rate basis in his career. The pitch has a .178 xwOBAcon and an arsenal-high 19% swinging strike rate in the small sample of these last four outings. He’s throwing it more in nearly every count-state, including two-strike and behind-in-count situations. His K-BB rate has jumped from 4% in his first 13 starts to 30% in these last four against righties. 😇
Kikuchi had been severely underperforming his projections, with a 5.52 xFIP. Kudos to the Angels for changing something and seeing immediate results, even though I have been anti-curveball for Kikuchi in the past.
Astros Colton Gordon now has a 3.98 ERA in 8 MLB starts with a 19% K-BB. Gordon is very similar to Astros starter Brandon Walter. They both have above-average extension, below-average release, multiple fastballs, low velocity, and plus control/command. Gordon’s 57.5% zone rate would be tied with Tarik Skubal for the highest among qualified starting pitchers in MLB if he had enough innings to make the list. His swinging-strike rate is below average (no surprise given his stuff), but he’s managed to crush lefty bats with his sinker-sweeper and survive versus righties throwing mostly four-seam, sweeper, and curveball. His on-mound mannerisms and delivery remind me a lot of Matthew Boyd. 🤠
Gordon’s underlying contact metrics against righties look rocky, suggesting there’s room for a tweak. It’s easy to suggest more precision with his breaking balls, both of which are zoned above 50% to right-handed hitters, but perhaps that defeats the purpose of his zone-heavy approach. The alternative is more curveballs in early and behind-in-count situations. Even if the contact quality still looks poor, it’s on the ground way more than his sweeper, so the risk of loss feels more tolerable. Projections peg him around a 4.40-4.80 ERA. His home run rate is high relative to his barrel rate, but perhaps that’s a Crawford Box issue.
The Astros relying on a pair of random, soft-tossing lefties is not something I had on my bingo card this season. Their staff had the best xFIP in MLB entering Wednesday’s action with 120+ innings covered by Gordon, Walter and Ryan Gusto—names I’m confident the average baseball fan wouldn’t recognize.
Athletics Jacob Lopez has been stellar for the Athletics over his last four starts, posting a 0.39 ERA / 3.78 xFIP with a 24% K-BB. His four-seamer only sits 91 mph, but his lefty release is further toward first base than 96% of left-handed pitchers in MLB. Lopez also averages 7.1’ extension down the mound, which is further down the mound than 91% of left-handed pitchers. He threw 46% four-seamers last season between the majors and minors with Tampa Bay. This season, he’s pulled his four-seamer back to just 29% usage and is using more cutter and changeup. 🤷♂️
Lopez is pitching a bit over his head, and he doesn’t have the command of other weird lefties like Colton Gordon and Brandon Walter, but he’s doing enough to suggest a league average ERA around 4.20-4.30 is attainable, especially against lineups susceptible to lefties (Guardians, Orioles). I’m not as convicted in thinking he’s a league average pitcher, however, mainly due to the lack of command and zone. He’s more of an odd, angles lefty with low velocity.